This paper studies how judicial ideology shapes financial markets' expectations about the macroeconomy. We use unexpected deaths of U.S. Supreme Court Justices as quasi-experimental shifts in the ...

Many public policies aim to support (or change the behavior of) a specific, targeted sub-group of the population. To measure the causal impacts of such policies, social scientists use ...

Pension funds are long-horizon investors with predictable liability structures. As such, they are often perceived as investors who can provide liquidity and stabilize markets. However, pension funds ...

The NBER Board of Directors appointed 35 Research Associates at its September 2026 meeting. Research Associates must be tenured faculty members at North American colleges or universities; their ...

Karen Mills was elected Chair of the NBER’s Board of Directors, and Douglas Peterson was elected Vice Chair, at the board’s ...

Mark Mason, Jack Porter, and Mark Wolfson were elected to the NBER Board of Directors at the Board’s September 28 meeting.

The Opportunity Zone (OZ) program, created under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, represents one of the largest place-based economic development initiatives in US history. It offers substantial capital ...

We estimate that a 1 GW AI campus costs about $41 billion. A 188 GW U.S. buildout completed by 2032 would require total investment of nearly$9 trillion and amount to annual investment of 3.2 percent ...

We analyze the academic affiliations of nearly 6,000 award-winning researchers in 18 major fields in the natural sciences, engineering, and social sciences from the 1820s to the 2020s, focusing on the ...

We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure ...

We use newly linked IRS data to study how US multinationals use tax-planning structures that exploit mismatches between US and foreign tax laws. In 2016, these structures accounted for 36% of foreign ...

We study how the shale revolution and the U.S. transition from petroleum importer to net exporter have changed the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks. Using oil supply news shocks identified from ...