You’ve heard a lot about Michigan. But Democrats may have bigger problems in states where voters don’t trust their governance ...

The “drafts” we’ve periodically conducted for the 2028 Democratic and Republican nominations are popular features with Silver Bulletin readers. No apologies for that. I’m not going to tell you that ...

Here at Silver Bulletin, we’ve been predicting that AI would become one of the most salient political issues for quite some time. That hasn’t happened with the general public quite yet — just 1 ...

Systematic polling errors are common. Polls might be biased against Republicans again. Or against Democrats. Predicting which ...

Pop quiz. Which Senate seat are Democrats more likely to flip: Ohio or Maine? This might seem like an easy question. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points, but lost the Buckeye ...

Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ) has been dormant since April. This wasn’t really planned, exactly. SBSQ is a popular feature. But it’s time to reboot SBSQ. Please leave questions for SBSQ ...

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

Have you ever heard about the Immortal Snail? It’s an intermittently popular internet meme that goes something like this: You’re offered 10 million dollars. What’s the catch? A snail will spend the ...